Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk |
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Authors: | David M Cooley Christopher S Galik Thomas P Holmes Carolyn Kousky Roger M Cooke |
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Institution: | (1) Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA;(2) United States Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park (RTP), NC 27709, USA;(3) Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036, USA;; |
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Abstract: | Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also
face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of
larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect
forest offsets—fat tails, micro-correlation, and tail dependence—and provide examples of how they could present themselves
in a forest offset context. Given these potential dependencies, we suggest several new risk management approaches that take
into account dependencies in reversal risk across projects and which could help guard the climate integrity of an offsets
program. We also argue that data collection be included as an integral part of any offsets program so that disturbance-related
dependencies may be identified and managed as early and to the greatest extent possible. |
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