产业结构变动对中国碳排放的影响

采用LMDI分解方法,对中国1996-2009年的碳排放进行分解,定量分析产业结构变动对碳排放变动的影响。在此基础上,依据对未来中国产业结构变动的预测,估算了2020年之前产业结构变动对中国碳减排的贡献。基本情况是,1996-2009年中国碳排放增长464 678万t,其中,经济总量效应531 337万t,产业结构效应49 887万t,能源消费强度效应-223 940万t,能源消费结构效应107 395万t,诸因素对碳排放增长的贡献度分别为114.3%,10.7%,-48.2%和23.1%。产业结构变动驱动了碳排放增长,尽管它不是最主要因素。进一步研究发现,高耗能产业上升或下降1个百分点所对应的CO2排放量增加或减少2.2-2.9亿t。依据对高耗能产业结构变动值的预测,到2020年,产业结构变动效应约为-5亿t,占期间碳排放增量的-15%。这表明,与此前产业结构变动导致碳排放量增加情形相反,未来产业结构变动将有助于减少碳排放。

Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Carbon Emission in China

First,the paper decomposes China’s carbon emission by using LMDI method to analyze the effect of industrial structure change on China’s carbon emission from 1996 to 2009.On this basis and according to the forecast of China’s industrial structure change,the paper estimates the contribution of industrial structure change to China’s carbon emission before 2020.The result shows that,the growth of CO2 emissions was 46.467 8 billion tons from 1996 to 2009 in China,the effect of economic growth,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity,and energy consumption structure was 5 313.37,498.87,-2 239.4 and 1 073.95 million tons respectively,and the contribution rate of all these factors to the growth of carbon emission was 114.3%,10.7%,48.2% and 23.1%.Though the change of industrial structure is not the most important factor,it is one of the main drives to the growth of carbon emissions.Furthermore,the rise or fall of the proportion of energy-intensive industry will lead to the increase or decrease of CO2 emission by220-290 million tons.According to the forecasting data of energy-intensive industry proportion change,the change of industrial structure effect on carbon emission is about-500 million tons by 2020,accounting for the incremental amount of-15% of carbon emissions.This result indicates that the change of industrial structure will much help reduce carbon emission in the future,and this is very different from before.