空间溢出、门槛特征与能源效率的经济增长效应

能源效率的改进能缓解经济增长过程中日益紧张的能源供需矛盾,然而空间异质性使得传统整体分析难以解释能源效率与经济增长之间的复杂关系。为了考察我国能源效率与经济增长的非线性空间联系,本文以我国1995-2009年省份面板数据,首先通过随机前沿生产函数模型测算我国各地区的能源效率及时空特征。接着,综合采用空间面板回归和门槛面板回归模型对能源效率与经济增长进行空间异质性检验,研究表明:能源效率对经济增长存在明显的空间外溢效应,空间溢出效应合理解释了能源效率与经济增长的空间非均衡分布。同时能源效率对经济增长存在门槛效应,能源效率对经济增长的弹性随着经济发展水平的提高而提高,但随着能源效率的提高而降低。本文政策含义明显:在制定能源的空间布局政策时应当加大对邻省较多、经济发展水平较高且能源效率较低省份的能源支出并努力提升这些省份的能源效率;而对经济发展水平较低且能源效率较高的省份,不宜从改进能源效率的思路来追求过快的经济增长。

Spatial Spillover, Threshold Effect and the Effects of Energy Efficiency on Economic Growth

Improvements of energy efficiency can alleviate supply and demand of energy during economic growth,but spatial heterogeneity makes traditional overall analysis difficult to explain the relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth.The paper makes use of panel data during 1995-2009 to study the nonlinear spatial links between energy efficiency and economic growth.Firstly,the paper estimates regional energy efficiency and temporal and spatial characteristics,then uses the spatial and threshold panel regression model to test heterogeneity.The results show that there exists a clear spatial spillover effects on economic growth from energy efficiency,and spatial spillover effects make a reasonable interpretation of non-equilibrium distribution between energy efficiency and economic growth.At the same time,there exists a threshold effect on economic growth from energy efficiency.The flexibility of energy efficiency on economic growth rises with the improvement of economic growth and decreases with the improvement of energy efficiency.Policy implication is significant so that the government should invest more in energy in provinces with more adjacent provinces,higher economic growth level and lower energy efficiency.However,for those provinces with higher energy efficiency and lower economic growth level,it is of little use to develop energy efficiency to pursue economic growth.