西部大开发战略的实施绩效考察

选择"十一五"末期国家区域发展规划的战略重点——成渝经济区、关中天水经济区、广西北部湾经济区作为研究对象,从经济增长趋同性研究的视角出发,利用上述三大经济区所涵盖的30个地级及以上城市的数据作为样本,采取Onestep-System-GMM方法对动态面板趋同模型进行回归,考察三大经济区在2000-2009年之间经济增长的趋同性质,并计算出大致趋同速度。本文的研究结果显示,西部地区的经济增长呈现出明显的条件趋同特征,趋同速度大约为-3.3%-2.0%,即西部大开发战略实施以来,西部地区内部的经济增长出现了缓慢的趋异。由于政策时滞的存在,且西部地区投资多以基础设施建设为主,投资以及经济增长的滞后一期对当期经济增长的影响并不显著。而初始经济状态和教育事业费支出对当期经济增长则有显著的正向影响。因此促进西部经济基础薄弱地区的发展是未来西部大开发深化推进的关键,而在保持物质资本投资规模的同时加大教育及人力投资的比重则可以有效缩小西部地区经济差异。

The Study of the Western Development Strategy Performance

The paper selects Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone,Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone and Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,as the research objects.From the perspective of economic growth convergence,using the 30-city data in the above three big economic zones as samples,taking Onestep-System-GMM method on dynamic panel model,the paper tests the convergence of three economic zones economic growth from 2000 to 2009 and calculates the approximate convergence speed.The result shows,the economy of the western China shows obvious conditional convergence,and the approximate convergence speed is-3.3% to-2%,which means since the strategy of development of the West Regions carried out,internal economy growth in western region appears slow divergence.Because of policy lagging effect and infrastructure construction,investment and lagging one phase of growth have the weak influence growth,but initial economy and education expenditure have the significant positive influence to current growth.Thus,promoting development of the less developed areas in western China is important future western development.In addition,keeping current physical capital investment scale and increasing education and human capital investment can effectively reduce the western region disparity.