基于海湾空间的海洋经济差异分析——以辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾为例

以辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾为海湾地理空间尺度,引入泰尔指数和变差系数、灰色关联法研究三大海湾地区的海洋经济规模总量和海洋产业关联效应的差异,运用多种预测模型预测未来十年三大海湾间地区海洋经济对区域经济发展影响和贡献的差异。结果显示:三大海湾空间地区海洋经济差异呈现先增大后减小趋势,2007年后呈现协调优化发展趋势;滨海旅游业、海洋交通运输和海洋油气业、海洋交通运输和海洋渔业分别对应辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾三大经济区的拉动效应较大,形成各具区域特色的重要优势海洋产业;据模型预测结果分析,到2015年辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾地区海洋经济比重将分别达到34%、21%、25%;莱州湾、渤海湾的海洋经济直接贡献率分别平均以2%和1%的速度递增,而辽东湾则平均以0.1%的速度递减,到2020年辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾的海洋经济直接贡献率将分别为36%、29%、46%。

Comparative Analysis of Marine Economic Difference based on Geospatial Gulfs:A Case Study of Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay

To study the marine economic situation of Bohai Region,the paper divided the region into three marine economic zones by geospatial scale that is Liaodong Bay,Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay.In this paper,Theil Index,coefficient of variation,and grey correlation method were applied to analyze the total amount of marine economy of the three bays and their association effect with marine industries.In addition,several prediction models were utilized to predict the difference of the influence and contribution of the three bays’ ocean economy to local economic development in the next decade.It showed that the difference of ocean economy among the three zones increased at first and then decreased.And their development turned to be harmonious and optimized after the year 2007.Among the main ocean industries,coastal tourism industry,ocean transportation mid marine oil-gas industry,ocean transportation and marine fishery were the most effective ocean industries to spur the economic development in Liaodong Bay,Bohai Bay,and Laizhou Bay,respectively.According to simulation results,by the year 2015 the proportion of ocean economy to the total economy of Liaodong Bay,Bohai Bay,and Laizhou Bay will reach 34%,21%,and 25% respectively.Taking the direct economic contribution of ocean econimic(△GOP/△ GDP) as consideration,the contribution of Laizhou Bay and Bohai Bay will increase with the annual growth rate at 2% and 1%,respectively.Liaodong Bay,however,decrease by 0.1% per year.In 2020,the direct economic contribution of Liaodong Bay,Bohai Bay,and Laizhou Bty will be 36%,29%,and 46%,respectively.