经济增长、国际贸易与污染排放的关系研究——基于美国和中国SO2排放的实证分析

在世界经济一体化进程中,国际贸易成为影响各国环境污染变化的重要因素,将其纳入经济增长与环境污染间关系的分析框架是环境学界关注的一个重要问题。本文基于联立方程模型,从经济产出、污染排放、污染治理和国际贸易等四个方面探讨了经济增长与污染排放的相互作用机理,并以美国、中国SO2排放为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:污染排放对经济产出有影响,且对美国和中国分别为正作用和负作用。经济增长增加了两国国内污染排放,且中国增加的相对更多。而污染治理均减少了国内污染排放,美、中的污染减排弹性系数分别为-0.277和-0.417。国际贸易对美国起到污染减排作用,对中国的影响不显著,考虑到贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用,其经济规模间接污染效应不容忽视。对于中国而言,加大污染治理投资、改善贸易进出口状况、降低经济发展过程中的污染排放是实现经济与环境协调发展的有效途径。

Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth, International Trade and Pollution Emissions: Empirical Analysis on the SO2 Emissions in the United States and China

Within the process of global economic integration,international trade has become an important factor in affecting a country’s pollution emissions.Taking it into the analytical framework of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution is a great concern of the environment academia.This article,based on the simultaneous equations model,explores the interaction mechanism between economic growth and emissions from four aspects,including economic output,pollutant emission,pollution abatement and international trade.The empirical study about SO2 emissions in the United States and China shows that: Emissions have positive effects on economic outputs in the U.S.and negative effects on China.Economics growth increases domestic emissions in both countries,especially in China which shows a greater increase.Pollution abatement helps to reduce domestic emissions,and the reduction elasticity coefficient is-0.277 in the U.S.and-0.417 in China.International trade decreases the U.S.pollution emissions but the impact on China is not significant.In consideration of the contribution of trade to China’s economic growth,the indirect scale effect of trade cannot be ignored.For China,increasing pollution control investment,improving the condition of import and export,and reducing pollution emissions in the process of economic development are effective ways to coordinate the development of economy and the environment.