潮白河流域1980—2013年平均水平衡特征研究

论文采用潮河、白河流域1980—2013年间气象、水文资料,基于水热耦合模型方法,分析了潮河、白河流域水循环要素相应于不同土地覆被类型结构变化和水平衡的特征。通过对未来10 a流域下垫面状况的预估,预测了未来变化环境条件下流域径流量的变化情况。研究对预测潮白河流域水资源变化特征、确保密云水库水资源安全具有重要意义。研究结果显示:该模型在潮、白河流域适用;在现有下垫面资料的基础上,利用林地面积和草地流域下垫面参数相结合的方法,对潮河流域和白河流域未来下垫面的变化分别做出了11种预测情景,并在11种情景的基础上预测两流域的未来10 a径流变化,结果显示潮河流域的径流深在26.47~53.55mm范围内波动,而白河流域的径流深在17.57~41.53 mm范围内变动。研究的创新点为,在对未来下垫面状况预测的基础上,利用水热耦合模型预测流域未来的可能径流状况。

Research of the Mean Annual Water Balance during 1980-2013 in Chaobai River Basin

In order to study the responses of water balance components to different land cover characteristics in long-term average scale in Chaobai River Basin, the data of precipitation, streamflow and evaportranspiration from 1980 to 2013 were adopted to calibrate a coupled water and heat balance model. Moreover, the change of the streamflow was predicated based on the reasonable forecasting of the underlying surface in the next ten years. The results showed that the model was applicative very well in Chaohe and Baihe river basins. On the basis of the existing underlying surface information, 11 situations of the change of the underlying in the future is predicted respectively by use of both data of the forest land area and the underlying surface parameters of grass watershed. The stremflow in the future was predicated based on the 11 situations respectively. The results showed that the streamflow ranges from 26.47 mm to 53.55 mm in Chaohe River Basin and the streamflow ranges from 17.57 mm to 41.53 mm in Baihe River Basin. The innovation of this work is predicting the streamflow based on the predicting of underlying surface in the future. It is of great significance for the study of water resources and formulating the water managements.