| 基于模糊综合评判方法的沉船风险预警 |
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| 引用本文： | 邢辉,周尊山,吕安勤,段树林,于洪亮.基于模糊综合评判方法的沉船风险预警[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 邢辉 周尊山 吕安勤 段树林 于洪亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 大连海事大学轮机工程学院,辽宁大连,116026
2. 山东海事局研究中心,山东青岛,266002 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通运输部海事局科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为有效预防沉船引发进一步的危害,基于模糊综合评判方法建立了沉船风险预警模型。通过对历史事故的统计分析,识别出沉船风险主要包括通航安全风险、环境污染风险和经济社会风险。基于系统工程的思想,确定了沉船风险的主要构成要素为沉船、沉船所在区域和周边自然环境。通过汇总专家经验和历史数据,确定了沉船风险预警指标体系并进行了分级量化,并运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了各指标的权重。以我国水域部分历史沉船为例进行验证,结果表明,应用该模型能迅速有效地开展沉船风险预警,并且得出的评估结论与历史操作经验比较吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 沉船 通航安全 环境污染 风险预警 模糊综合评判 层次分析法(AHP) |
Risk Early Warning for Shipwreck Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation |
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| XING Hui,ZHOU Zun-shan,Lü An-qin,DUAN Shu-lin,YU Hong-liang.Risk Early Warning for Shipwreck Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(4). |
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| Authors: | XING Hui ZHOU Zun-shan Lü An-qin DUAN Shu-lin YU Hong-liang |
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| Abstract: | To prevent further hazards after vessel sinking,shipwreck risk early warning model was established based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Through the statistical analysis of historical accidents,shipwreck risk including navigation safety risk,environmental pollution risk and economic social risk was identified.Based on systems engineering ideas,risk system constituted by shipwreck-shipwreck area-natural environment was established.Through the summary of expert experience and historical data,shipwrec... |
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| Keywords: | shipwreck navigational safety environmental pollution risk early warning fuzzy comprehensive evaluation analytic hierarchy process(AHP) |
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