Application of Markov model to environmental fate of phenanthrene in Lanzhou Reach of Yellow River

The theory of Markov Chain is used scientifically to describe the transfer/transformation of phenanthrene in Lanzhou Reach of Yellow River. In Markov Model (MM), the states of phenanthrene in Lanzhou Reach are divided into six different states, namely being degraded, leaving the system with the addvective flow, being in air, being in water, being adsorbed on suspending substances (SS), and being in bottom sediment (BS). The MM is simulated by using Matlab6.5 to reveal the temporal changes and environmental fate of phenanthrene in Lanzhou Reach. It is shown that the environmental system will be steady in 30,000-35,000 h, the final distributions of phenanthrene in air, water, SS, and BS are 23,033 kg, 1961 kg, 800 kg, and 2824 kg respectively, with the corresponding percent of 80%, 7%, 3%, and 10%.The results of MM are approximate to the results of Fugacity Model (FM), so Markov Chain can be used to evaluate the environmental fate of pollutants in multimedia environment. The outputs of MM include the following aspects: (1) The residual time of pollutant in different environmental media and the transiting time of pollutant between different environmental media; (2) The response time of the environmental system; (3) The total mass of pollutant transferred or degraded during a given time interval; (4) The time needed for the environmental system to be steady and the final steady distributions of pollutant in the environmental system.