基于InVEST-PLUS模型的淮北市碳储量时空演变及预测

研究土地利用时空演变对生态系统碳储量的影响,对研究区未来的国土空间规划以及减排增汇提供理论依据.基于1985、1995、2005、2015和2020年这5期土地利用数据,结合InVEST模型分析了研究区碳储量时空变化,运用PLUS模型预测研究区2035年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景以及耕地和生态双保护情景土地利用变化并估算不同情景下的生态系统碳储量.结果表明:①1985~2020年研究区耕地面积持续减少,2015~2020年土地利用变化较快,综合土地利用动态度达到了34.62 %；②1985~2020年碳储量呈下降趋势,减少1.55×10⁵ t,其中在2005~2015年间,碳储量减少了1.22×10⁵ t,年均减少量达1.22×10⁴ t；③碳储量较高区域分布在研究区的东部,碳储量较低区域分布在研究区中部和西北部；耕地碳储量占比从66.89 %下降到57.73 %,但耕地仍是研究区最主要的碳库；其他地类向草地和林地转化有利于生态系统碳储量的增加；④2035年,自然发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景以及双保护情景下的碳储量分别为81.77×10⁵ 、82.45×10⁵、82.82×10⁵和82.51×10⁵ t.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Huaibei City Based on InVEST-PLUS Model

This study aimed to investigate the impact of spatiotemporal changes in land use on ecosystem carbon storage. The study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in the study area based on land use data from five periods (1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2020) using the InVEST model. The PLUS model was used to predict land use changes in the study area under four different scenarios (natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and double protection of farmland and ecology) in 2035, and the ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios was estimated. The results of the study indicated that the farmland in the area under investigation had been decreasing consistently from 1985 to 2020, with a more rapid rate of change observed between 2015 and 2020. During this period, the overall dynamic attitude towards land use reached 34.62 %. Additionally, the carbon storage in the area showed a decreasing trend over the years, with a decrease of 1.55×10⁵ t from 1985 to 2020. Between 2005 and 2015, the carbon storage showed a decrease of 1.22×10⁵ t, with an average annual decrease of 1.22×10⁴ t. The areas with higher carbon storage were located in the eastern part of the study area, whereas areas with lower carbon storage were found in the central and northwestern parts. Although the proportion of carbon storage in farmland decreased from 66.89 % to 57.73 %, farmland remained the most important carbon pool in the study area. The conversion of other land use types to grassland and forestland was advantageous for increasing ecosystem carbon storage. Finally, the study projected that by 2035, the carbon storage in the natural development scenario, the farmland protection scenario, the ecological protection scenario, and the dual protection scenario would be 81.77×10⁵, 82.45×10⁵, 82.82×10⁵, and 82.51×10⁵ t, respectively.