西安高新区多情景碳达峰预测及减排路径分析

第十三届全国人民代表大会第五次会议提出要致力于推进碳达峰碳中和工作,促进经济社会向全面绿色低碳转型,实现高质量发展.西安高新区作为陕西省重要的科技创新和产业聚集区,经济发展在很大程度上依赖于能源消耗,碳减排的任务就显得尤为艰巨.以西安高新区为研究对象,首先通过系统核算园区内碳排放,对不同能源种类和不同行业企业碳排放现状进行分析；然后利用Kaya模型设定多种独立的碳达峰情景,预测不同情景下的碳排放总量值及碳达峰时间；最后结合西安高新区发展特点科学甄选相应的碳减排路径,给出合理的减排建议.结果表明,目前电力消耗碳排放占比最多且份额呈逐年上升趋势,工业碳排量始终占主导地位且第三产业发展日益蓬勃；碳排放因子情景、能源强度情景和经济水平情景这3种情景下可于2030年达到碳达峰,其中经济发展水平对西安高新区未来碳达峰的峰值和时间影响最大,产业结构情景、能源结构情景和人口规模情景在2030年前没有出现峰值；未来减排路径主要从电力部门脱碳、经济稳健高质量发展、能源及产业结构绿色升级和构建绿色交通体系入手,可为实现碳中和预留更多的准备时间,也为我国工业园区低碳发展提供决策参考.

Multi Scenario Carbon Peak Prediction and Emission Reduction Path Analysis of Xi'an Hi-tech Zone

The fifth session of the 13th National People''s Congress proposed to be committed to promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, promoting the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society and achieving high-quality development. As an important scientific and technological innovation and industrial cluster in Shaanxi Province, the economic development of the Xi''an Hi-tech Zone largely relies on energy consumption, making the task of carbon reduction particularly challenging. Firstly, taking the Xi''an Hi-tech Zone as the research object, through systematic accounting of carbon emissions within the park, we analyzed the current carbon emission status of enterprises in different energy types and industries. Then, using the Kaya model, multiple independent carbon peak scenarios were set up to predict the total carbon emissions and peak time under different scenarios. Finally, based on the development characteristics of the Xi''an Hi-tech Zone, we scientifically selected corresponding carbon emission reduction paths and provided reasonable emission reduction suggestions. The results showed that the proportion of carbon emissions consumed by electricity was currently the highest, and the share was increasing yearly. Industrial carbon emissions had always been dominant, and the development of the tertiary industry was becoming increasingly prosperous. In the scenario prediction, the carbon emission factor scenario, energy intensity scenario, and economic level scenario could reach the carbon peak by 2030. Among them, the economic development level had the greatest impact on the peak and time of the future carbon peak in the Xi''an Hi-tech Zone, whereas the industrial structure scenario, energy source structure scenario, and population size scenario had no peak before 2030. The future emission reduction path mainly started from decarbonization of the power sector, stable and high-quality economic development, green upgrading of energy and industrial structure, and building a green transportation system. This can reserve more preparation time for achieving carbon neutrality and provide decision-making reference for the low-carbon development of industrial parks in China.