Climate- and human-induced woody vegetation changes in Botswana and their implications for human adaptation |
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Authors: | Ringrose S Chipanshi A C Matheson W Chanda R Motoma L Magole I Jellema A |
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Institution: | (1) Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana, BW;(2) AAFC-PFRA 603-1800 Hamilton St., Regina, Saskatchewan, S4P 4L2, Canada, CA;(3) EES (Pty) Ltd., P.O. Box 20315, Gaborone, Botswana, BW;(4) Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, Private Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana, BW;(5) F.A.B., P.O. Box 2088, Gaborone, Botswana, BW;(6) Conservation International, P.O. Box 448, Maun, Botswana, BW;(7) Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana, BW |
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Abstract: | For purposes of suggesting adaptive and policy options regarding the sustained use of forestry resources in Botswana, an analysis
of the whole countrywide satellite data (showing the mean present distribution of vegetation in terms of species abundance
and over all density) and the projection of vegetation cover changes using a simulation approach under different climatic
scenarios were undertaken. The analysis revealed that changes in vegetation cover types due to human and natural causes have
taken place since the first vegetation map was produced in 1971. In the southwest, the changes appear to be more towards an
increasing prevalence of thorn trees; in the eastern part of the country where widespread bush encroachment is taking place,
the higher population density suggests more human induced (agrarian-degradation) effects, while in the sparsely settled central
Kalahari region, changes from tree savanna to shrubs may be indicative of the possible influence of climate with the associated
effects of fires and local adaptations. Projection of future vegetation changes to about 2050 indicates degeneration of the
major vegetation types due to the expected drying. Based on the projected changes in vegetation, current adaptive and policy
arrangements are not adequate and as such a shift from the traditional adaptive approaches to community-based types is suggested.
Defining forestry management units and adopting different management plans for the main vegetation stands that are found in
Botswana are the major policy options. |
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Keywords: | : Climate change Vegetation Satellite mapping Adaptation Policy interventions |
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