Predicting change in fish mercury concentrations following reservoir impoundment

Fish mercury concentrations frequently increase after impoundment of a reservoir. Soil flooding releases organic matter and nutrients, providing food to bacterial communities that methylate inorganic mercury. Methylation and bioaccumulation are the primary pathways for mercury accumulation in fish. We investigated if changes in fish mercury concentrations could be predicted from the change in reservoir size. Data for three fish species, northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Stizostedion vitreum), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) from reservoirs in northern Manitoba and northern Quebec were used to evaluate four simple models of change in mercury with change in flooded area. For three additional fish species, all primary carnivores, the preferred model consisted of a single exponential enrichment term. This model successfully predicted two cases not used in model development-one with a large change in area and one with a small change in area. Models with good predictive skill can be developed when the underlying dynamics are known.