大城市边缘区土地利用时空格局模拟--以武汉市洪山区为例

大城市边缘区的土地利用变化复杂而迅速，采用定量模型对此地域的时空格局进行模拟，在土地规划领域有重大意义。以武汉市洪山区为例，首先采用DPSIR模型对大城市边缘区的工业用地、居住用地、服务设施用地、绿地等进行驱动力机制的定性分析，得出每种用地相应的驱动力、压力和状态；进而采用CLUE S模型，通过用地变化驱动力因子作用权重系数的求解，模拟时段内各类用地的需求分析与用地变化的动态分配过程，对边缘区的用地演变进行模拟；最后通过用地现状图对模拟用地进行验证，模拟结果基本拟合。在模拟的基础之上，设定了两种大城市边缘区空间发展的情景模式，即不作任何空间约束的用地演变和进行可持续发展约束的用地演变，有针对性地提出该区域的发展需要重点保护水体和自然风景区。其方法及成果可为大城市边缘区制定发展管理政策提供科学参考。

MODELLING THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN OF URBAN FRINGE--A CASE STUDY ON HONGSHAN DISTRICT OF WUHAN CITY

The land use change of urban fringe is complicated and rapid.It is of great significance to simulate the spatio-temporal structure of this area in the field of land planning.In this study,taking Hongshan District in Wuhan City as an example,the authors adopted the DPSIR model to qualitatively analyze the driving force mechanism of industrial land,residential land,public facility land and green space in urban fringe,and obtained the corresponding driving force,pressure and state of each kind of land use;then employ the CLUE-S model to simulate the land-use development through three processes: calculating weight coefficient of driving factors,simulating demand analysis of each land and simulating dynamic distribution of land-use development;at last,compared the simulation land with land status map and found that the results basically tally with the actual situation.On the basis of the simulation,the authors established two modes of spatial development of urban fringe,and proposed to protect the water and landscape zone in this area.The method and result provide valuable information for decision makers.