绿色经济发展总体评价与区域差异分析

依据联合国环境规划署提出的绿色经济指标框架,即“经济转型有效性”“资源利用绿色度”“进步和福祉实现度”3个方面,结合我国实际情况,建立了一套三级指标体系,并采用主成分分析、聚类分析、多元线性回归等方法,从横向和纵向2个维度分析了我国绿色经济发展状况. 结果表明:①我国30个地区绿色经济发展不均衡,绿色经济综合指标得分最高相差4.52,其中5个发展水平最低的地区均位于西部；②各地区内部3个指标也同样存在不平衡的问题；③1997—2011年,我国绿色经济发展的总体水平呈良好上升态势,绿色经济综合指标的年均增幅为42%,但某些经济总量发展领先的东部地区,在过去的15 a间绿色经济发展甚至出现倒退；④资源利用和环境保护是影响我国绿色经济发展的主要因素,其中“有效灌溉面积占耕地比重”指标的影响最大,其标准回归系数达到0.553. 

Evaluation and Differential Analysis of Regional Green Economic Development in China

UNEP declared that the index of Green Economy should include economic transition in three aspects, resource utilization and progress & welfare. The present study devised a set of three-level index systems for the Chinese situation (with three indicators at the first level, nine indicators at the second level and 32 indicators at the third level), and applied principal component analysis and cluster analysis to analyze domestic regional economic development conditions from horizontal and vertical angles. The analysis found that:1) Domestic green economic development is in an unbalanced state among the different provinces (maximal general index score difference is 4.52). The five provinces located in the western region are at the lowest level of development. 2) There is an unbalance between the three indicators in each region. 3) According to the data from 1997 to 2011, the general level of green economic development domestically showed a promising rising trend (general index score increased by an average 42% per year). However, some leading economic development eastern provinces'' green economic development showed a backsliding trend in the past 15 years. 4) Resources usage and environmental protection were main factors affecting green economic development domestically. The standard regression coefficient of the ratio of effective irrigation area to arable area was 0.553, which makes it the most important factor.