中国电力行业多污染物控制成本与效果分析

利用情景分析法建立了2010—2030年我国电力行业SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5的排放控制情景,分析了发电技术结构调整、加严及进一步加严末端控制措施(脱硫、脱硝、除尘等)的减排成本和效果. 结果表明:到2030年,相对于趋势照常情景,若加严末端控制设施,将新增336×108元投资,SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5排放量可分别减少121×104、852×104、18×104、10×104 t；若进一步加严末端控制措施,将再新增25×108元投资,NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5可分别进一步减排45×104、23×104、15×104 t；若进行发电技术结构调整,将新增2 383×108元投资,SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5排放量分别减少248×104、420×104、18×104、10×104 t；2020年和2030年发电技术结构调整带来的单位污染物减排成本分别为15 374和34 239元/t,是末端控制措施加严的3倍以上,但其能提供更大的SO₂减排空间并具有降低能耗和减排温室气体等协同效益. 从成本效果角度考虑,建议采用加严末端控制措施方案,同时调整发电技术结构、合理发展清洁发电技术,以为污染物减排提供更大空间. 

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Multi-Pollutant Emission Reduction in Power Sector of China

Six emission control scenarios were developed, and the cost-effectiveness of power structure adjustment and more stringent end-pipe control measures (i.e., desulfurization, denitration, dedusting) was evaluated. The emission control scenarios included multi-pollutants including sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) emitted from power sector during 2010-2030. The results indicated that, compared with business-as-usual scenario, 33.6 billion RMB would be needed if more stringent end-of-pipe control measures were applied in 2030, and the corresponding emission reductions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 would be 1.21,8.52,0.18 and 0.10 million tons, respectively. For additional control, an additional 2.5 billion CNH is needed, and the corresponding emission reductions of NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 would be 0.45,0.23 and 0.15 million tons, respectively. The power structure adjustment would need 238.3 billion CNY, with corresponding emission reductions of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 being 2.48,4.20,0.18 and 0.10 million tons, respectively. The costs for unit emission reduction through power structure adjustment would be 15,4 and 34,9 CNY/t in 2020 and 2030, which is over three times those associated with stringent end-pipe control measures. However, the power structure adjustment provides more emission reduction potential for SO₂, and brings the co-benefit of lower energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. According to the cost-effectiveness analysis, it is suggested to apply more stringent end-pipe control measures to reduce the emissions of multi-pollutants. Meanwhile, the power structure shall be further optimized and clean power generation technology shall be promoted to provide large potential for air pollutant reduction.