Statistical analysis of stratospheric ozone data for the detection of trends |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Electrical Engineering, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao, 066004, China;2. Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010 Vic., Australia;1. Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, PO Box 149, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece;2. UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA;3. Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 1627, FI-70211, Kuopio, Finland;4. Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center, Dorfstrasse 33, 7260, Davos Dorf, Switzerland;1. Centre for Environmental Studies, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi 110003, India;2. Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi 110016, India;3. Natural Resource and Management Department, Teri University, New Delhi 110070, India;4. Department of Development Communication and Extension, Lady Irwin College, New Delhi 110001, India |
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| Abstract: | Time series modelling of monthly total ozone data is considered for the detection of trend in ozone due to the possible effects of the release of chloroftuoromethanes (CFMs). Based on ozone data from a global network of 36 ground-based Dobson recording stations over the period 1958–1978. our findings show little evidence of any trend in global ozone occurring in the 1970s. Using a random effects model for the individual station trend estimates, the global change in total ozone during 1970–1978 has been estimated as (0.28 ± 1.35)%. These results differ considerably from the theoretical CFM chemical model predictions of (−1.5 ±1.1)% change. |
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