基于SD的海岸带污染负荷预测及污染经济损失研究—以江门市为例

基于系统动力学原理和方法，耦合水污染负荷及"浓度-损失"模型，建立2006~2015年江门市海岸带水污染系统模型，并仿真预测4种发展情景:现状趋势发展型(S1)、人口经济发展型(S2)、产业优化及治污减排型(S3)、综合协调型(S4)下，2016~2020年的海岸带水污染负荷及污染经济损失。结果显示:1)4种发展情景下，江门市海岸带COD、氨氮、总磷均主要来自农业污染，其次为生活污染; 2)S4情景为最优方案，海岸带污染负荷得到控制和削减，海洋污染经济损失最低，2020年江门市海岸带污染总负荷和污染经济损失比现状发展情景分别减少7.9%、17.7%。可见，在合理的人口经济发展下，通过对产业结构优化、加大污染治理和环保投入等可有效降低海岸带污染负荷及污染损失。本研究可为江门市海岸带水污染合理控制与管理提供定量化参考，为江门市等滨海城市社会、经济和环境协调发展提供借鉴。

Study of water pollution load prediction and pollution economic loss in coastal zone based on system dynamics: a case study of Jiangmen city

Base on system dynamics coupled with water pollution load model and concentration-loss model, the coastal zone water pollution system model was established to simulate water pollution load and economic loss in the Jiangmen coastal zone from 2006 to 2015. Four development scenarios:development under the current trend (S1), rapid development in population and economic (S2), industrial optimization and pollution control (S3), comprehensive scenario (S4), are simulated, in order to predict the potential pollution load and economic loss from the year 2016 to 2020. Results show that:1) For all the four development scenarios, agricultural pollution mainly contribute to the pollutants of COD, NH₃-N and TP in Jiangmen coastal zone, while domestic pollution is the second source; 2) Scenario of S4 will be the best, in which the coastal zone pollution load will be controlled and marine pollution economic loss will be the minimal; The total pollution load and economic loss will be decreased by 7.9% and 17.7%, compared to S1, respectively. Therefore, under the circumstances of reasonable constraint of population and economic development, coastal pollution load and pollution economic loss can be effectively reduced by industrial structure optimization and increasing investment in pollution control and environmental protection. This study not only provides quantitative reference to the control and management of water pollution for Jiangmen, but provides reference for the harmonious development of society, economy and environment of other coastal cities like Jiangmen city.