| 火灾事故发展趋势预测方法的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 付丽华,张瑞芳,陆松,龙胜刚.火灾事故发展趋势预测方法的应用研究[J].火灾科学,2008,17(2):111-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 付丽华 张瑞芳 陆松 龙胜刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学,火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽,合肥,230027 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了三种火灾事故发展趋势预测方法：灰色理论预测法、指数平滑法和马尔科夫预测法。结合贵州省1997至2006年火灾四项指标统计数据，探讨了三种预测方法对不同波动幅度数据序列的适用性；给出了贵州省未来两年火灾的发展趋势，可为当地制定正确地防止火灾发生的决策提供重要的参考依据。此外，还对每种方法在预测过程中值得注意的问题进行了讨论。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 二次指数平滑 马尔科夫链 火灾预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5309(2008)-0111-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/12/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月30 |
Investigation on Application of Fire Forecast Methods |
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| FU Li-hu,ZHANG Rui-fang,LU Song and LONG Sheng-gang.Investigation on Application of Fire Forecast Methods[J].Fire Safety Science,2008,17(2):111-117. |
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| Authors: | FU Li-hu ZHANG Rui-fang LU Song and LONG Sheng-gang |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,three macroscopical fire forecast methods,respectively by gray theory method,exponential smoothing method and Markov chain method,are described.The methods are used to analyze the fire statistical data in Guizhou province from 1997 to 2006,in order to forecast the number of fire accidents,economy loss and injury and deaths in the future two years,whereby the trend of fire accident is predicted. |
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