| 极端海况下海洋石油结构的风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕秀艳,刘德辅,牟善军,李晓冬.极端海况下海洋石油结构的风险评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(12):95-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕秀艳 刘德辅 牟善军 李晓冬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学工程学院
2. 中国石化集团安全工程研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据中国海上石油工业缺乏独立的风险评价体系的现状 ,笔者对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析 ,利用随机模拟技术 ,求解结构的失效概率 ,提出结构失效分析的新方法 ,并利用DNV提供的历史数据 ,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北 12 C井组平台作为实例 ,对平台甲板高程 (AirGap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明 ,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法 ,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评估 近海石油结构物 联合概率随机模拟技术 极端海洋环境 后果分析 平台甲板高程 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月1日 |
Risk Assessment for Offshore Oil Structures under Extreme Sea Environment |
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| LV Xiu-yan,LIU De-fu,MU Shan-jun,LI Xiao-dong.Risk Assessment for Offshore Oil Structures under Extreme Sea Environment[J].China Safety Science Journal,2004,14(12):95-99. |
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| Authors: | LV Xiu-yan LIU De-fu MU Shan-jun LI Xiao-dong |
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| Institution: | 1 Ocean University of China 2 Sinopec Safety Engineering Institution |
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| Abstract: | Considering the lack of independent risk assessment system for offshore oil industry in China, a new risk assessment method for offshore structure is proposed. Based on the multivariate joint probability analysis for extreme sea environmental loads, stochastic simulation technique based on Importance Sampling Procedure is used to structure failure estimation. Some data observed in Bohai Sea and failure consequence data by DNV are used to assess Chengbei 12-C platform and the failure analysis of platform deck clearance. The risk assessment method proposed would provide a new approach to establish a risk analysis system in such field. |
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| Keywords: | Risk assessment Offshore oil structures Joint probability stochastic simulation technique Extreme sea environment Consequence analysis Platform deck clearance |
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