Modeling changes in paddy rice sown areas in Asia |
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Authors: | Wenbin Wu Ryosuke Shibasaki Peng Yang Huajun Tang Kenji Sugimoto |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan;(2) Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 100081 Beijing, China;(3) Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, 100081 Beijing, China |
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Abstract: | Paddy rice fields in Asia account for over 90% of global total rice cultivation area, and the major rice-producing countries
of Asia account for over one-half of the world’s population. Monitoring and understanding the dynamic changes in paddy rice
agriculture in Asia are very important for agricultural sustainability, food and water security, and greenhouse gas emissions.
This paper presents a crop choice decision model that dynamically simulates future changes in sown areas of paddy rice in
Asia. This model was developed under the framework of Action-in-Context (AiC) with the aim of understanding land users’ decisions
on crop choices among a set of available alternatives using a crop utility function. Empirical validation for the model conducted
after model construction indicated the reliability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land-use
change and its capacity for investigating long-term scenarios in the future. Finally, the model was applied for future scenario
analysis over a time frame of 30 years with 5-year increments, beginning from the year 2005. The simulation results provided
insights into rates and trajectories of changes in Asian rice areas over the test period, with the resulting implications
for future agricultural sustainability in Asia. These outcomes can improve understanding of projected land-use changes and
explain their causes, locations and consequences, as well as providing support for land-use planning and policy making. |
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