考虑等待位置的航空器交叉滑行冲突概率模型

为解决交叉道口冲突范围定义不完整等问题，提出了航空器交叉滑行冲突概率模型。该模型针对交叉滑行道结构特点，以T型交叉口为例，综合等待位置、机身长度、喷流范围等要素，扩展冲突区域，基于实时速度、位置变化构造冲突概率模型，并利用速度分布密度函数对模型求解。仿真验证表明:模型能计算不同运动状态的中型机在T型交叉口处的冲突概率，T型道口等待位置对冲突概率影响较大，等待位置较近将造成冲突判断延迟，等待位置较远会产生虚警误判，致使滑行中断。利用实际滑行轨迹验证，结果表明:模型能够再现T型道口上2架中型机滑行冲突产生、发展及解脱过程，计算结果与实际运行情况一致，能为管制员、飞行员提前判断冲突，及时采取措施提供依据。

Model on conflict probability of aircraft cross taxiing considering holding position

In order to solve the problem of incomplete definition of the conflict scope at the crossing,a model on conflict probability of aircraft cross taxiing was proposed.In this model,according to the structural characteristics of cross taxiway,taking T shaped crossing as an example,the conflict area was expanded by integrating the holding position,fuselage length,jet flow range and other factors.The model of conflict probability was constructed based on the real time velocity and position change,and it was solved by using the velocity distribution density function.The simulated verification showed that the model could calculate the conflict probability of medium sized aircrafts with different motion states at T shaped crossing.The holding position of T shaped crossing had a great influence on the conflict probability.When the holding position was close,it would cause the conflict judgment to be delayed.If the holding position was far away,the false alarm would be generated,resulting in the interruption of taxiing.Using the actual taxing track for verification,the results showed that the model could reproduce the processes of the generation,development and liberation of the taxing conflict between two medium size aircrafts at the T shaped crossing,and the calculation results were consistent with the actual operation status.It can provide the basis for the controller and pilot to judge the conflict in advance and take the measures in time.