最优加权组合模型在管道腐蚀预测中的应用

为构造海底混输管道腐蚀最优加权组合预测模型,针对传统非等间距GM(1,1)管道腐蚀预测模型中初始条件的选取问题,提出了新信息优先原理下的NEGM(1,1,τ)海底管道腐蚀速率预测模型,以充分发挥建模序列中各分量对预测系统的修正作用;引入ARIMA预测模型,在3个不同定权准则下与NEGM(1,1,τ)模型形成管道腐蚀加权组合预测模型,并通过评价指标函数实现组合模型的性能评价。研究结果表明:组合模型2的海底混输管道腐蚀速率预测值与实际值的平均相对误差为0. 495 4%,评价指标函数RMSE,AARD和MAPE的值分别为0. 1936%,0. 1275%和0. 595 3%,均优于其他2个准则下的组合模型。建立NEGM(1,1,τ)-ARIMA海底管道腐蚀速率最优加权组合预测模型,从多角度挖掘了管道腐蚀速率序列中的可靠信息,预测结果的可信度更高。

Application of optimal weighted combination model in corrosion prediction of pipeline

In order to construct the optimal weighted combination prediction model for the corrosion of submarine multiphase pipeline, aiming at the problem of selecting the initial values in the traditional non equal spacing GM(1,1) pipeline corrosion prediction model, a NEGM(1,1,τ) prediction model on the corrosion rate of submarine pipeline based on the principle of new information prioritization was put forward, so as to fully exert the correction effect of each component in the modeling sequence on the prediction system. The ARIMA prediction model was introduced and combined with the NEGM(1,1,τ) model to form the weighted combination prediction model of pipeline corrosion under three different weighting criteria, and the performance evaluation of the combination model was realized by the evaluation index functions. The results showed that the average relative error of the prediction values for the corrosion rate of submarine multiphase pipeline by combination model 2 compared with the practical values was 0.4954%, and the values of evaluation index functions RMSE, AARD and MAPE was 0.193 6%, 0.127 5% and 0.595 3% respectively, which were all better than those of combination models under other two criteria. The NEGM(1,1,τ)-ARIMA optimal weighted combination prediction model for the corrosion rate of submarine pipeline was established, which revealed the reliable information in the corrosion rate sequence of pipeline from multiple perspectives, with a higher reliability of prediction results.