铁路危险品运输系统单因素耦合风险折叠突变及控制机理研究

为研究铁路危险品运输系统受人、机、物、环、管单因素耦合风险的影响,分别建立了各单因素耦合风险折叠突变模型,采用1985—2016年中国发生的铁路危险品运输事故统计数据分析模型,显示出人的单因素耦合风险突变对于铁路危险品运输系统的影响最大,其次是管、机、物、环因素。基于此分别建立了含系统内部风险防御阻尼控制系数和外部影响因素幅值调节系数的杜芬震荡分叉响应方程研究单因素耦合风险控制机理,研究结果表明:随着系统内部阻尼不断增强,或是外部影响幅值得到控制,铁路危险品运输系统都将不再产生折叠突变,系统将变得更加稳定、安全。

Study on single factor coupling risk folding mutation and control mechanism of railway dangerous goods transportation system

In order to study the influence of single factor coupling risks of human, machine, object, environment and management of the railway dangerous goods transportation system, we established a single factor coupling risk folding mutation model, and we used the statistical data of China railway dangerous goods transportation accidents occurred from 1985 to 2016 to analyze the model. The results show that the single factor coupling risk mutation of human has the greatest impacts on the railway dangerous goods transportation system, followed by the management, machine, object and environment. After that two duffing oscillating bifurcation response equations with internal damping control coefficient and external influence factor amplitude adjustment parameters are established to study the single factor coupling risk control mechanism. The results show that: as the internal damping of the system continues to increase, or the external influence amplitude is controlled, the railway dangerous goods transportation system will no longer produce folding mutations, and the system will become more stable and safer.