基于情景构建的应急预案体系优化策略及方法

为了进一步优化我国现有应急预案体系，从应急管理实践中分析梳理出4方面问题，包括:“在指导理念上依然没有充分体现应急准备的理念”“应急预案体系在微观、中观和宏观层面依然存在结构性问题”“应急预案的内容存在‘概念性’内容较多的情况，导致操作性和针对性不强”“预案动态管理滞后，持续改进机制尚未形成”；针对现存问题，提出基于情景构建的优化策略和方法，认为“情景构建”不但可以指导编制者分析应急需求、明确应急目标、规划应急程序，有效支撑应急预案的编制，而且可以派生出“基于情景链条的预案衔接策略”“基于任务协同的预案衔接策略”“基于资源约束的预案衔接策略”，进而从微观层面上推进预案体系的优化。研究结果可以作为各级政府和企业应急预案体系构建的参考和借鉴。

Strategies and methods for optimization of emergency plan system based on scenario construction

In order to further optimize the current emergency plan system in China,four aspects of problems were analyzed and summarized from the practice of emergency management,including “the idea of emergency preparedness was still not fully embodied in the guiding ideas”,“the structural problems still existed in the micro,meso and macro levels of the emergency plan system”,“the situation of more ‘conceptual’ content in the contents of the emergency plan led to poor operability and pertinence” and “the dynamic management of plans was lagging behind,and the mechanism of continuous improvement had not yet been formed”.Aiming at the existing problems,the optimization strategies and methods based on the scenario construction were proposed.It was thought that the scenario construction could guide the preparer to analyze the emergency requirements,define the emergency goal and plan the emergency procedures,so as to effectively support the preparation of emergency plans.Meanwhile,the scenario construction could derive “the plans cohesion strategy based on scenario chain”,“the plans cohesion strategy based on task collaboration” and “the plans cohesion strategy based on resources constraint”,thus to promote the optimization of plan system from the micro level.The results can be taken as the reference for the governments at all levels and the enterprises to construct the emergency plan system.