基于元胞自动机恐慌状态下人群疏散模型研究

为了研究恐慌情绪对疏散中人群行为的影响,结合决策理论和情绪感染相关理论,同时考虑恐慌情绪对行人决策的影响和恐慌情绪本身的动力学特性,如情绪感染和衰减等,采用元胞自动机方法,建立基于场域模型的恐慌状态下行人决策修正模型,采用该模型研究恐慌情绪对人群疏散行为的作用规律。研究发现:当处于优势疏散位置的行人,由于恐慌做出非理性决策,不仅降低了自身的疏散效率,而且会占据其他行人的最优疏散路径,因此导致整体疏散效率的下降;随着恐慌情绪阈值增加,同一时刻的恐慌人数减小,疏散时间减小,且存在某一临界值,使疏散时间最短;情绪自衰减速率是影响恐慌情绪的关键因素,且存在决定恐慌情绪的蔓延或者衰减的临界值;行人的恐慌程度随着行人密度的增加而增加,因为人群规模较大时,恐慌情绪的感染次数增加,并在人群中得到反复加强,从而使人均恐慌值增加。

Study on crowd evacuation model under panic state based on cellular automata

In order to study the influence of panic emotion on the crowd behavior during evacuation, combined with the relevant theories of decision making and emotional contagion, and considering the influence of panic emotion on the decision of pedestrians and the own dynamic characteristics of panic emotion such as emotional contagion and attenuation, a modified model on the decision making of pedestrians under the panic state based on the floor field domain model was established by using the cellular automata method, and the model was applied to study the action laws of panic emotion on the evacuation behavior of crowd. The results showed that when the pedestrians being in advantaged evacuation location made the irrational decisions due to panic, it would not only reduce their own evacuation efficiency, but also occupy the optimal evacuation path of other pedestrians, thus lead to the decrease of overall evacuation efficiency. With the increase of panic emotion threshold, the number of panic people at the same time and the evacuation time decreased, and there was a critical value that made the evacuation time shortest. The self attenuation rate of emotion was the key factor affecting the panic emotion, and there was a critical value that determined the spread or attenuation of panic emotion. The panic degree of pedestrians increased with the increase of pedestrian density, because when the crowd size was large, the number of panic emotional contagion increased and obtained repeated reinforcement in the crowd, thus made the panic value per person increase.