基于叠加-触发原理的铁路危险品运输系统风险场形成机理研究

引入风险场理论研究铁路危险品运输系统风险形成机理,基于系统风险因素识别,建立铁路危险品运输系统风险势函数及对应的风险场强模型,采用触发器原理分析了风险场叠加后的风险形成机理。研究结果表明:内部风险场承受体风险势和风险场强均为代数加和叠加;外部风险场分为单一和多风险源2类,风险势均表现为代数加和叠加,风险场强叠加均满足平行四边形法则。风险状态的变化直接作用于内、外风险场承受体,内部风险场承受体全部或部分崩溃,将导致铁路危险品运输系统失效,其释放的风险场能量将会对外部风险场承受体系统进行攻击,导致外部风险场承受体的部分或整体失效,进而产生风险级联效应。

Study on formation mechanism of risk field in railway dangerous goods transportation system based on superposition triggering principle

The risk field theory was introduced to study the formation mechanism of risk in the railway dangerous goods transportation system. Based on the identification of system risk factors, the risk potential function and the corresponding risk field strength model of railway dangerous goods transportation system were established, and the formation mechanism of risk after the superposition of risk field was analyzed by using the trigger principle. The results showed that the risk potential and risk field strength of the acceptor of internal risk field were the algebraic sum and superposition. The external risk field could be divided into type types of single risk source and multiple risk sources, and both the risk potential presented as the algebraic sum and superposition, while both the risk field strength superposition satisfied the parallelogram rule. The change of risk state directly affected the acceptor of internal and external risk field. The total or partial collapse of the acceptor of internal risk field would lead to the failure of railway dangerous goods transportation system, then the released risk field energy would attack the acceptor system of external risk field, which would lead to the partial or overall failure of the acceptor of external risk field, thus produce the cascade effect of risk.