基于蒙特卡洛方法的着陆擦机尾风险预测

为解决对航班和机队着陆时擦机尾风险客观预测问题,基于飞行QAR数据和蒙特卡洛模拟方法,建立擦机尾风险预测模型,将某航空公司Boeing737-800机队的380套QAR数据作为样本数据,运用MATLAB编程进行5 000次模拟抽样试验,得到不同机队着陆时俯仰角的分布和擦机尾风险预测曲线。研究结果表明:当着陆俯仰角大于4. 5°时,机队2擦机尾风险较大;运用蒙特卡洛模拟预测的飞机着陆俯仰角更为稳定和准确。该模型可进一步软件化,为航空公司的擦机尾超限事件管理提供可靠性指标参考,实现对飞行员操作风险的动态管理。

Risk prediction of tail strike during landing based on Monte Carlo method

In order to solve the problem about the objective prediction on the risk of tail strike during the landing of flights and fleets, a model on the risk prediction of tail strike was established based on the flight QAR data and the Monte Carlo simulation method. 380 sets of QAR data of the Boeing 737-800 fleet in a certain airline were taken as the sample data, then 5000 times of simulated sampling tests were carried out by using the MATLAB programming, and the distribution of pitch angle and the rick prediction curves of tail strike during the landing of different fleets were obtained. The results showed that when the landing pitch angle was greater than 4.5 degrees, the risk of tail strike for fleet B was larger, and the landing pitch angle of the aircraft predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation was more stable and accurate. The software implementation of the model can be carried out further, so as to provide the reference of reliability indexes for the airlines to manage the exceedance events of tail strike and realize the dynamic management on the operational risk of pilots.