基于直觉模糊集的城市供水安全预警评价模型

为了更好地评价城市供水安全预警的等级，基于直觉模糊集理论，建立城市供水安全预警评价模型。模型选取12个评价指标构成属性集，预警等级划分标准构成评价等级集，再将二者转换为直觉模糊数，以此构成直觉模糊决策矩阵，并综合主、客观权重的优势得到组合权重，以此计算样本综合值，最后分析指标权重变化对于评价结果影响的灵敏度。实例计算结果表明:基于直觉模糊集的城市供水安全预警评价与可拓物元分析法的结果总体接近，2006—2009年供水安全预警等级处于重警或中警等级，2009年以后预警等级降低并基本稳定在无警这一等级。不同指标的敏感性分析有助于提高权重的准确性。

Early warning and evaluation model of urban water supply security based on intuitionistic fuzzy set

In order to better evaluate the level of urban water supply security warning, this paper establishes a warning and evaluation model of urban water supply security based on intuitionistic fuzzy set. This model selects 12 evaluation indexes to constitute the attribute set. The classification criteria of early warning level constitutes the evaluation grade set, and then converts the two into intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, which constitutes the intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix, and combines the advantages of subjective and objective weights to obtain the combined weights, so as to calculate the sample composite value. Finally, the sensitivity of the index weight change to the evaluation results is analyzed. The results show that the urban water supply security early warning evaluation model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy set is generally close to the result of extension material element analysis. The early warning level of water supply security from 2006 to 2009 is at the level of serious alarm or medium alarm. After 2009, the early warning level decreases and is basically stable at the level of no alarm. The sensitivity analysis of different indexes is helpful to improve the accuracy of weights.