人口迁移视角下城镇化对典型领域碳排放驱动效应研究——以辽宁省为例

城镇化的快速发展为我国带来了日新月异的变化，但城镇化进程中伴随着能源消费快速增长，使我国面临能源供应、节能减排等方面更加严峻的挑战.现有研究主要是从宏观角度研究城镇化对能源消费及碳排放的影响，较少探究人口从农村向城镇迁移过程中对典型领域产生的驱动效应.基于此，本研究以辽宁省为例，应用弹性系数模型，选取居民消费、住宅建筑、道路交通3个典型领域探讨城镇化对碳排放的驱动效应，并提出针对性的碳减排政策.结果表明，2006—2015年，城镇化对居民生活直接消费碳排放的驱动效应最为显著，弹性系数为9.91；对居民生活间接消费碳排放和道路交通领域的驱动效应次之，弹性系数分别为6.94和5.38；对住宅建筑等驱动效应最弱，弹性系数为2.71.研究表明，城乡生活方式差异导致居民直接生活消费碳排放显著增加，相较而言，城乡产品市场差异较小；辽宁省现阶段城镇住宅建筑存量与城镇新增人口的需求基本匹配，但人口城镇化带来的城市边界外扩、人口密度提高，导致道路交通碳排放增长.

Research on the driving effect of urbanization on carbon emission in typical fields from the perspective of population migration-Taking Liaoning Province as an example

The fast development of urbanization has brought a lot changes in China, but the rapid growth of energy consumption in the process of urbanization has made China facing more difficult challenges in energy supply, energy conservation, emission reduction and other aspects.So far, researchers mainly focus on the macro perspective to study the effect of urbanization on energy consumption and carbon emissions, while the process of population from rural to urban migration of microcosmic influence on key areas of carbon emissions are less explored.Therefore, this study has taken Liaoning province as an example and applied the elastic coefficient model to study the influence of urbanization on carbon emissions based on the residents'' consumption, residential buildings, and road traffic, and put forward the corresponding policies to reduce emissions.Results from 2006 to 2015 showed that urbanization had the most significant driving effect on carbon emissions from direct consumption of residents'' lives, and the elasticity relationship was 9.91.The indirect carbon emissions driving effect of road transportation and household consumption were the following factors, and the elasticity relationship were 6.94 and 5.38, respectively.For residential buildings, the driving force was the weakest, with a elasticity relationship of 2.71.