中国的能源回弹效应及其对实现“十三五”节能目标的影响

通过构建中国能源经济递推动态CGE模型，分别模拟了改善我国整体经济能效、单独提升不同品种能源利用效率以及仅提升高耗能行业能效的回弹效应，同时模拟了2012~2020年我国能源回弹效应的变化趋势及对我国实现“十三五”节能目标的影响.结果显示：我国存在能源回弹效应，整体经济的能源回弹效应在36%左右；全社会整体能效的提升更有利于我国节能，能效改善有利于我国减少煤炭使用但可能导致部分行业电力消耗的反弹；2012~2020年我国的能源回弹效应呈缓慢上升趋势，如果不配套相关措施我国“十三五”能效改善目标的实现将面临挑战.

Energy rebound effect in China and its impacts on achieving the energy conservation target in the 13th Five-Year Plan

A recursive dynamic CGE model for Chinese energy-economic analysis was developed in this paper. Based on the model, the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of the whole economy was firstly simulated, then the rebound effect of only one kind of energy efficiency improvement with coal, oil, natural gas and electric power were simulated respectively, and then the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of energy-intensive industries was simulated. In the end, the variation tendency of energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 and its impacts on achieving the energy conservation target in the 13th Five~Year Plan were simulated. It was indicated by the results that energy rebound effect did exist in China and it was about 36% for the whole economy. Increasing energy efficiency of the whole economy was better for energy conservation of China, and the energy efficiency improvement was good for decrease of coal consumption, but increase of electric power utilization of some industries would be resulted. Slow upward tendency for energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 was showed, and challenges would be faced to achieve the energy conservation target in the 13^th Five-Year Plan if no supporting measures had been adopted in the meanwhile.