二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析

在全球范围内为应对气候变化而达成二氧化碳减排共识的背景下,探求“经济增长”与“二氧化碳排放”间相互关系.运用协整,向量自回归模型,脉冲响应函数以及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对处在经济发展不同阶段区域的人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间关系进行因果检验.研究结果表明：区域经济发展与人均二氧化碳排放量存在长期均衡关系,但是由于区域间经济发展水平及发展方式的不同,人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间相互影响程度存在差异,且二氧化碳排放量的减少并不是经济增长的必然结果,必须通过产业结构调整,扶持第三产业,使用清洁能源,发展低碳经济的方式来实现,本文对我国碳减排政策的制定具有一定借鉴意义.

The empirical analysis of the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth

In the context of answering climate change and reaching a consensus on reducing carbon dioxide emissions in global scale. Exploring the relationships between "economic growth" and "carbon dioxide emissions" is of great significance. Cointegration, vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response function and Granger causality were applied in this paper to analysis the causal relationship between " carbon emissions per capita" and "economic growth" in six regions with different economic development level. The results showed that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship between region economic development and per capita carbon emissions. However, due to various economic development levels and development models in the specific region, the degree of carbon dioxide emissions per capita was different from that of economic growth; meanwhile economic growth could not guarantee the reducing of carbon emissions. The reasonable way to achieve this is through adjusting industrial structure, strengthening the third industry, using clean energy, applying low carbon economy development way, which is of great significance in implemet policices to reduce emissions in China.