约束条件下中国循环经济发展中的生态效率——基于优化的超效率SBM-Malmquist-Tobit模型

以中国30个省份、直辖市、自治区的年度面板数据为研究对象，重点将生态资源存量和环境污染造成的经济浪费两项指标纳入新的生态效率评价体系，运用优化的引入非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算生态效率，再运用Malmquist指数考察全要素生产率（TFP）与生态效率的动态变动关系，最后运用Tobit回归分析探索生态效率主要影响因素的方向、强度和变化趋势，以此度量和展现循环经济发展的整体情况.结果显示：生态效率呈现由东到西、由沿海到内陆逐渐收敛的格局，东部沿海地区和中部、西部内陆地区间，循环经济发展水平存在显著的阶梯式区域失衡；生态效率的集群效应明显，辐射效应不足，不同地区或同一地区的不同省份间，循环经济发展水平同样参差不齐；经济发展引发的生态赤字问题逐步缓解，但在短时间内经济和生态的矛盾依旧存在，西北地区尤为突显；第三产业比重、技术进步、市场开放对生态效率的提升具有积极作用且趋于强化；政府规制、人口密度对生态效率的提升也具有积极作用但趋于减弱；第二产业比重、能源结构对生态效率的改善存在负面影响亦趋于强化.

Ecological efficiency in the development of circular economy of China under hard constraints based on an optimal super efficiency SBM-Malmquist-Tobit model

In this paper, a novel ecological efficiency evaluation system was proposed which considered both the indicator of ecological resources and the indicator of economic waste caused by environmental pollution. Firstly, an optimized super efficiency SBM model was used to calculate the ecological efficiency of China by introducing the non-expected output in the model. Then, Malmquist index method was used to examine the dynamic changes between Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and ecological efficiency. Finally, Tobit regression model was applied to explore the directions, intensities and dynamic trends of the main factors affecting the ecological efficiency. The new ecological efficiency evaluation system could help us to capture the overall situation of circular economy development in China. By analyzing the annual panel data of 30provinces in China, the empirical results showed that, there existed a gradual convergence pattern in the ecological efficiency from east to west and from the coast to the inland. There also existed a significant step-by-step regional imbalance in the development of circular economy between the eastern coastal areas and the central and western inland areas. The cluster effect of ecological efficiency was obvious, while the radiation effect was not so evident. The development of circular economy was also uneven in either different regions or different provinces of the same region. The deficit in the ecosystem triggered by economic development was gradually reduced, but the contradiction between economy and ecology still existed in the near future, especially in the northwest region. The proportion of tertiary industries, technological progress and market opening level had a significant positive effect on the promotion of ecological efficiency and the impacts were strengthening more and more. Government regulation and population density had a significant positive effect on the improvement of ecological efficiency but the impacts were weakening gradually. The proportion of secondary industries and the structure of energy had a significant negative impact on the improvement of ecological efficiency and the impacts were strengthening more and more.