中国煤炭环境成本内部化的经济影响分析

对煤炭开采、运输和使用各个环节的环境污染和生态破坏外部成本进行核算的基础上，运用GREAT-E模型对煤炭环境成本内部化政策给GDP、居民收入、产业结构和贸易竞争力等带来的影响进行了定量分析.分析结果表明，煤炭开采、运输和使用各环节分别进行的环境成本内部化对中国宏观经济的影响较为有限，GDP的下降在可承受的范围之内，即使是全生命周期的煤炭环境成本完全内部化也只导致GDP出现0.15%左右的轻微下降.煤炭环境成本内部化将促进劳动力和资本等要素从高耗能行业向低耗能特别是技术密集型和现代服务业部门转移，进而推动产业结构优化转型升级.在煤炭生产、运输和消费环节通过征收环境相关税费能够更直接地刺激生产部门的环境行为调整，降低煤炭的生产和消费量，进而减少环境污染和生态破坏.

Economic impacts of environmental cost internalization of coal in China

Based on the estimation of value of external environmental cost of coal in its whole life cycle including production, transportation and usage, this study applied GREAT-E model to quantify the impact of the environmental cost internalization policy of coal, including gross domestic products (GDP), residents' income, industrial structure and trade competitiveness. Results showed that the impact of environmental cost internalization for each stage (including production, transportation and usage) to Chinese macro economy was relatively limited, and negative impacts on GDP was acceptable. Even if all environmental costs in the process of coal production, transportation and consumption were internalized, real GDP loss was only 0.15%. The environmental cost internalization of coal was beneficial to optimize the industrial structure and trade structure. High energy-consuming industries would be restrained, and the developments of technology-intensive and modern service industries are accelerated. This was because labor and capital released by high energy-consuming industries are transfer into the technology-intensive and modern service industries. Levy on coal in the process of coal production, transportation and consumption could directly stimulate industries to implement more proper measures to reduce environmental pollution and ecological degradation.