东北三省能源消费碳排放测度及影响因素

将扩展的Kaya恒等式与对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）分解法相结合，以2005~2016年东北三省主要能源消费数据为研究对象，构建优化的碳排放分解模型，测度并分解其碳排放与碳排放强度.通过与中国同期能源消费碳排放的定量对比分析，考察各产业（部门）能源结构效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应、经济产出效应和人口规模效应对东北三省能源消费碳排放的影响.结果显示：2005~2016年，东北三省碳排放总量占中国碳排放总量的8.84%，碳排放强度普遍高于中国碳排放强度.经济产出效应和人口规模效应对东北三省碳排放增长起拉动作用，其中经济产出效应贡献最大为188%，经济发展和城市化进程的加速不利于碳排放的降低.产业能源强度效应、能源结构效应及产业结构效应对东北三省碳排放增长起抑制作用，能源强度效应的抑制作用最大为59%，产业能源强度的调整空间较大.降低能源消耗强度，调整产业内部结构，完善经济政策体制是今后促进东北三省低碳经济发展的重要手段.

Measurement of carbon emissions from energy consumption in three Northeastern provinces and its driving factors

To find the key factors of the carbon emissions from energy consumption in three northeastern provinces, a hybrid approach was applied by combining the extended Kaya identity method and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. Firstly, an optimized carbon emission decomposition model was developed to measure and decompose the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of three northeastern provinces during 2005~2016. Then, by performing a comparative analysis of three northeast provinces and the whole China, the impacts of the following factors on the carbon emissions were examined:the energy structure, the energy intensity, the industrial structure, the economic output and the population. The empirical results showed that, during 2005~2016, the total carbon emissions of three northeastern provinces accounted for 8.84% of the total carbon emissions of China, and the average carbon emission intensity of these three provinces was higher than that of China. Moreover, both economic output and population had significant positive effects on the carbon emissions; meanwhile, the largest contribution of economic reached 188%. The economic development and urbanization did not reduce the carbon emissions in these three provinces. In addition, the industrial energy intensity, energy structure and industrial structure had significant negative effects on carbon emission in which the maximum effect of energy intensity reached 59%. It was also found that there exists a large adjustment space in the industrial energy intensity. In summary, to promote the development of low-carbon economy, we suggested to reduce energy consumption, adjust the internal structure of the industry and improve the economic policy system in three northeastern provinces.