Rainfall variability and household coping strategies in northern Tanzania: a motivation for district-level strategies |
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Authors: | Sara L M Trærup Ole Mertz |
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Institution: | 1. UNEP Ris? Centre, Ris? DTU, P.O. Box 49, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark 2. Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, ?ster Voldgade 10, 1350, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Abstract: | Climate variability is an important stress factor for rural livelihoods in most developing countries where households have
been adapting to environmental shocks for decades. Climate change results in increased variability and poses new challenges
for rural livelihoods, as well as for policymakers in adjusting policies to changing conditions. This paper examines the potential
relationships between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest
shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2,700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. The results
show that rainfall patterns in the region are very location-specific and that the distribution of household reported harvest
shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping
strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support
and the selling of assets. There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level
data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order
to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local conditions that rural households
face when experiencing climate-related shocks. Finally, shocks reported by households appear to correspond well with observed
variability in rainfall patterns. |
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