Production potential for spring wheat in the Canadian prairie provinces — An estimate

A method for estimating long-term crop yield and production potentials for spring wheat in Canada is described. The assessment was made at a map scale of 1:5 000 000, and is based on map units from the Soils of Canada.Potential net biomass and dry matter yield values were computed using procedures adapted from those described by the FAO. Potential values were determined using a form of photosynthesis model which calculates crop photosynthesis response to temperature and radiation averaged over a growing season. Anticipated yields were derived from these values by employing yield-reducing factors related to moisture stress, autumn workday probability and soil constraints. The anticipated (corrected) yield for each map unit was compared to the maximum potential yield obtainable in the country.The results of the procedure are expressed as a quantitative land suitability assessment. Each map unit was classified into one of 6 suitability classes. Areas with anticipated yields of less than 20% of maximum potential were considered as not suitable for production. From this data base, total crop production potentials were computed for the prairie provinces for various land-use allocations.Analysis of the soil and climatic resources indicates that a production level of 50 million tonnes of wheat, or its equivalent in coarse grains and oilseeds, is possible without altering the present land allocation to pasture, forage or specialty crops. Results of the production model estimates, however, suggest that this figure represents the upper limit of the production capability of the available soil and climatic resources for this region.