The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008 |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China;2. International Research Center for Sustainable Built Environment, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China;3. Department of Building & Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong;1. School of Economics, Finance & Banking, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, Kedah, Malaysia;2. UniSA College, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia;3. Faculty of Business and Accountancy, University of Malaya, Jalan Universiti, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;4. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cag University, 33800, Mersin, Turkey;1. School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China;2. Jiangsu International Energy Policy Research Center of Colleges and Universities, Xuzhou, 221116, China;1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;2. College of Administrative Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;3. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;4. Business School, Shanxi Datong University, Datong 037009, China |
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| Abstract: | This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. |
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