基于风险矩阵和五元减法集对势的湖泊水生态健康动态诊断评估

为判断湖泊水生态健康子系统发展趋势、诊断病态因子，引进了五元减法集对势，建立生态子系统与物理化学子系统的合成矩阵得到湖泊水生态健康状态，从而提出了基于风险矩阵和五元减法集对势的湖泊水生态健康动态诊断评估方法，并应用于安徽省瓦埠湖。结果表明:瓦埠湖水生态健康状态1980—2015年呈变差趋势，2012年为微病态，2015年略有好转。五元减法集对势识别出瓦埠湖水生态健康的病态因子主要有底栖动物、浮游动物、叶绿素、COD、TN、TP和透明度，为改善瓦埠湖水生态健康的重要指标。上述风险矩阵和五元减法集对势耦合的动态诊断评估方法可为湖泊水生态健康评估提供新的思路。

DYNAMIC DIAGNOSIS AND EVALUATION METHOD OF LAKE WATER ECOLOGICAL HEALTH BASED ON RISK MATRIX AND FIVE ELEMENT SUBTRACTION SET PAIR POTENTIAL

In order to judge the development trend and diagnose the morbid factors of the lake water ecological health subsystem, the five element subtraction set was introduced, and the composite matrix of the ecosystem and the physical and chemical subsystem was established to get the lake water ecological health status. Thus, the dynamic diagnosis and evaluation method of the lake water ecological health based on the risk matrix and the five element subtraction set was proposed and applied to Wabu lake in Anhui province. The results showed that the water ecological health status of Wabu lake had a trend of deterioration from 1980 to 2015, which was slightly morbid in 2012 and slightly improved in 2015. It was indentified by five element subtraction set pair potential that the pathological factors of water ecological health of Wabu lake mainly included benthos, zooplankton, chlorophyll, COD, TN, TP and transparency. And they were important indicators to improve water ecological health of Wabu lake. The dynamic diagnosis and evaluation method of the coupling of the risk matrix and the five element subtraction set could provide a new idea for lake water ecological health evaluation.