京津冀城市群二氧化碳排放达峰研究

基于IPCC排放因子方法建立了2015—2019年京津冀城市群地级城市CO₂排放清单，基于经济增长与CO₂排放关系的脱钩系数法，得到京津冀城市群13个地级以上城市的脱钩情况，结合历史CO₂排放和脱钩情况提出的京津冀城市群达峰判别方法，对京津冀城市群地级以上城市CO₂排放达峰情况进行了判断。结果表明:近5年来，保定、张家口、秦皇岛、邢台、沧州、廊坊、衡水7市碳排放量暂未达到峰值状态；北京、天津、石家庄、承德、邯郸、唐山6个城市已经处于CO₂排放达峰状态。建议已经具备达峰条件的城市抓紧开展达峰行动方案，制定CO₂排放达峰目标。

RESEARCH ON CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS PEAKING IN BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI CITY AGGLOMERATION

Based on the IPCC emission factors method, this article developed the 2015—2019 city level CO₂ emission inventory for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(TBH) agglomeration in China, and adopt decoupling coefficient method to analyze the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emission. Based on carbon dioxide emissions trends and decoupling situation, this paper made a prediction on the peak of CO₂ emission in TBH agglomeration. The results showed that in the past five years, the carbon emissions of 7 cities including Baoding, Zhangjiakou, Qinhuangdao, Xingtai, Cangzhou, Langfang, and Hengshui have not reached the peak yet. While Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Chengde, Handan, and Tangshan have already reached the peak. The cities which have the fundation of reach the peak should promptly propose and carry out the action plan for the CO₂ emission peaking goal.