道路机动车温室气体排放评估与情景分析:以北京市为例

基于LEAP模型（long-range energy alternatives planning system）评估北京市历史阶段（2000—2018年）道路机动车温室气体排放量的变化规律，并设置5种情景预测未来阶段（2019—2030年）机动车保有量、能源需求、温室气体排放量的发展趋势，探究达峰年份，寻求最优发展路径。结果显示:未来北京市机动车保有量仍将持续增长，但平均年增长率降低至1.63%。机动车温室气体排放总量已于2013年达峰，峰值为21758563 t CO_2e，对应能源消耗量为306383 TJ，未来所有情景下机动车温室气体排放量均呈不同程度下降。单一措施中提高机动车燃料经济性的减排效果最佳，综合3种减排措施的ODS情景（最优发展情景）是最优发展路径。

ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ON-ROAD VEHICLE GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING

Based on the LEAP model (long-range energy alternatives planning system), this study evaluated the variation law of on-road vehicle greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions in the historical stage of Beijing (2000—2018), and developed five different scenarios to predict the development trend of vehicle stock, energy demand and GHGs emissions in the future (2019—2030). In addition, we explored the peaking year of vehicle GHG emissions of Beijing, as well as the optimal development path. The results showed that the vehicle stock would continue to increase in the future, but the average annual growth rate would reduce to 1.63%. Total vehicle GHGs emissions peaked in 2013 at 21758563 t CO_2e, corresponding to the energy consumption of 306383 TJ. In all future scenarios, vehicle GHGs emissions would decline. Improving the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles was the best way to reduce emission when implementing single emission reduction measures. And ODS (optimal development scenario) that integrated the three emission reduction measures was the optimal development path.