Groundwater Modeling in Agricultural Watershed under Different Recharge and Discharge Scenarios for Quaternary Aquifer Eastern Nile Delta,Egypt

Different scenarios of recharge and discharge were assessed for sustainable management of groundwater in Quaternary aquifer east of Nile Delta. MODFLOW was utilized to investigate the effect of land use change and damming construction in the upstream of the Nile River on the current and short-term groundwater management strategies. The interpretive transient simulation was performed between 2004 and 2016 after steady-state calibration in 2004, and transient state from 2004 to 2013 with different irrigation recharges associated with land use change in this period. Sensitivity analysis was performed for hydraulic conductivities, recharge, and conductance parameters. The predictive transient simulation was run till 2023 under three scenarios of increasing pumping rates by 15, 30, and 50% for agriculture expansion and specified head reduction of Port Said Canal by 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 m associated with the reduction of Nile water levels after Grand Ethiopian Residence Dam, GERD operation in 2017. Results from the in- and out-flow budgets showed that groundwater aquifer is stable at the current rate of pumping till 2023. Groundwater heads decreased by 0.2 and 0.42 m in the southern section, and a slight increase in the northern part was noticed for the first and second scenarios, respectively. When additional pumping stress is applied (50% increase), groundwater head dropped by 0.66 m, and the storage is no longer able to maintain the aquifer capacity after 2020 (worst-case scenario).