基于SSP-RCP情景的黄土高原土地变化模拟及草原碳储量

探索未来气候变化情景下土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）和生态系统碳储量的空间分布,可以为优化土地资源再分配和制定社会经济可持续发展政策提供科学依据.研究整合了斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型和生态系统服务与权衡综合评价（InVEST）模型,基于CMIP6提供的共享社会经济路径和代表性浓度路径（SSP-RCP）情景,评估了黄土高原LUCC和生态系统碳储量的时空动态变化,分析驱动因素对不同区域的影响程度,探讨各区域碳储量空间相关性.结果表明：①未来3种情景LUCC变化模式相似,耕地、草地和未利用地面积都有不同程度的减少,建设用地急剧扩张,3种情景下的增幅分别为29.23%~53.56%（SSP126）、34.59%~63.28%（SSP245）和42.80%~73.27%（SSP585）.②与2020年相比,2040年SSP126情景碳储量增加1.813 8×10⁶ t,其余情景持续下降；到2060年,3种情景草原碳储量分别减少13.391×10⁶、33.548×10⁶和85.871×10⁶ t.③从空间相关性来看,黄土高原碳储量在市域间存在相关性,未来情景差异不显著,热点分布在研究区中部及中部以北地区,没有明显的冷点区域.④土地利用变化会增加或损失碳储量.林地、耕地和草地比其它土地类型有更多的碳储量,增加它们的面积和限制向其它土地类型转换会增加生态系统碳储量.

Land Change Simulation and Grassland Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios

Exploring the spatial distribution of land use/coverage (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon reserves in the future of climate change can provide a scientific basis for optimizing the distribution of land resources and formulating social economic sustainable development policies. In this study, we integrated the plaques generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and ecosystem services and weighing comprehensive evaluation (InVEST) model. Based on the CMIP6-based sharing socio-economic path and representative concentration path (SSP-RCP), we evaluated the Loess Plateau for time and space dynamic changes in LUCC and ecosystem carbon reserves, analyzed the impact of driving factors on different regions, and explored the correlation between carbon reserves in various regions. The results showed:① In the future, the three scenarios were similar to the LUCC changes. The area of cultivated land, grassland, and unused land would be reduced to varying degrees, and the construction land had expanded sharply. The increase in the three scenarios was 29.23%-53.56% (SSP126), 34.59%-63.28% (SSP245), and 42.80%-73.27% (SSP585). ② Compared with that in 2020, the carbon reserves of SSP126 sites in 2040 increased by 1.813 8×10⁶ t, and in the remaining scenarios it would continue to decline. By 2060, the grassland carbon reserves in the three scenarios decreased by 13.391×10⁶, 33.548×10⁶, and 85.871×10⁶ t, respectively. ③ From the perspective of space correlation, the carbon reserves of the Loess Plateau were correlated between cities. The difference in future scenarios was not significant. The hotspots were distributed in the middle and north of the research area. There was no obvious cold spot area. ④ The changes in land use were predicted to increase or lose carbon reserves. Forestry, cultivated land, and grassland had more carbon reserves those in than other land types. Increasing their area and restrictions on the conversion of other land types should increase the ecosystem carbon reserves.