1961-2006年我国气候变化趋势与突变的区域差异

基于FAO56 Penman-Monteith校正模型模拟结果，结合线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和滑动T检验法，分析了我国1961-2006年温度和水分条件的变化趋势与突变特征。研究揭示出近几十年来中国及各地区平均温度呈显著上升趋势，且在20世纪80年代后期发生显著突变，突变在东北部较早，南部地区相对较晚。全国降水量略有减少趋势，没有检测到显著突变，西北干旱区的降水在20世纪80年代中期发生显著突变。全国潜在蒸散呈显著减少趋势，在20世纪80年代初发生显著突变，东部地区突变发生时间早于西部地区。全国干燥度呈显著的减少趋势，在20世纪70年代末发生了显著突变；亚热带、青藏高寒区和西北干旱区的干燥度减少趋势尤为显著，西北干旱区在1986年发生显著突变，湿润程度增加明显。

Regional Difference of Climate Trend and Abrupt Climate Change in China during 1961-2006

Based on observed meteorological data, modified FAO56 Penman-Monteith model, methods of linear trend, Mann-Kendall nonparametric and moving T-test, the trend and abrupt change of temperature and moisture conditions in China were analyzed during the period 1961-2006. Results indicated that in China as a whole, the average temperature had significant warming trends, precipitation had slightly decreasing trend, and potential evapotranspiration and aridity index had significant decreasing trends. The abrupt change of temperature occurred significantly in the late 1980s in China as a whole, moreover, it occurred earlier in Northeast China and later in South China. Precipitation had significant decreasing trend in warm temperate zone and increasing trend in West China. There had no tested significant abrupt change of precipitation in China as a whole. However, the abrupt change of precipitation occurred only in the Northwest arid region in the mid 1980s. The abrupt change of potential evapotranspiration occurred in the early 1980s in China as a whole with regional difference of earlier in East China. As for regional difference, aridity index had significant decreasing trends in the subtropical region, the Tibetan Plateau alpine region and the Northwest arid region. Moreover, aridity index had significant abrupt change in the late 1970s in China as whole, and especially in the Northwest arid region with distinctive enhancing humidity in 1986.