A study on experts' judgement on the future perspective of a country: a case study for China |
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| Authors: | Shinji Kaneko Ryo Fujikura Hidefumi Imura |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), 1560-39, Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0198, Japan;(2) Faculty of Economics, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1 Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shiga, 525-8577, Japan;(3) Institute of Environmental Systems (IES), Kyushu University, 6-10-1 Hakozaki, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, 812-8581, Japan |
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| Abstract: | The future of the environment in China until the year 2050 has been forecasted through a heuristic approach. A questionnaire survey was given to a group of Japanese experts concerning 47 selected indices, including past data and reference data about other countries. The indices were related to aspects of the economy, population, food, energy, transportation, and the environment. The experts were requested to plot a graph for each index up to 2050 based on their intuition. The lines drawn by 60 experts were compiled along with their comments, and the characteristics of each index were analyzed. Different values for the indices regarding transportation and per capita GDP were forecasted by the experts, while rather similar values were obtained for those referencing population and food consumption. The respective fields of the experts were found to affect their perspectives on the future. Economists tended to show rather optimistic views, expressing a business-as-usual scenario, while engineers predicted limited growth but technological innovation. |
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| Keywords: | China integrated assessment environmental forecasting heuristic approach long-term perspective |
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