城市地震次生火灾的潜在危险性--基于城市地理信息系统网格的评价

从地震次生火灾发生与蔓延的两个阶段入手，将城市地震次生火灾潜在危险性评价问题划分为地震火灾起火危险性评价和蔓延危险性评价两个部分。针对这两部分评价，仔细分析、提取了与火灾发生和蔓延相关的重要因子，完整构建了地震次生火灾潜在危险性评价的指标体系，并利用层次分析法计算出各级指标之间的危险性权重。此外，为了获取城市不同区域上地震次生火灾危险性的变化规律，利用规则网格单元作为基本的评价单元，结合城市地理信息系统获取网格中各种空间信息计算各项指标值，克服了以往利用街区作为评价单元而导致评价结果过于粗糙的缺点。通过评价，我们可以准确地获得城市区域上地震火灾的高危险区和时域上的高危险时段。评价结果可供城市防治地震次生火灾规划决策参考。

Potential risk of urban post-earthquak fire: assessment based on urban GIS grid

According to two main phases of post-earthquake fires,the potential risk assessment of urban post-earthquake fire can be divided into two parts,i.e.ignition risk assessment and fire-spread risk assessment.Through(analysis,) the authors extracted several key factors correlated with ignition following earthquake and subsequent fire-spread,and further organized them to build an integrated framework of risk assessment.At each level of framework,the AHP method was employed in computing indices' relative weights.Furthermore,in order to reflect the regional variety of urban post-earthquake fire risk,regular grid replaced street block as basic assessment element,which overcomes the shortcoming that the assessment based on street block results in the coarser assessment.In sum,through this risk assessment,the dangerous regions and periods can be finally obtained to direct the decision-making in urban planning for preventing and mitigating post-earthquake fire disaster.