| Abstract: | ABSTRACT: The HEC-4 monthly stream flow simulation model, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, is used to extend the available historical stream flow records in the Central Ohio area. The principal objective of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of the HEC-4 model in generating synthetic monthly flows. Important statistical parameters are evaluated in order to relate the statistical properties of the historical and generated flows. In doing so, it is observed that the mean, standard deviation, and skewness of the generated flows are consistently larger than the corresponding estimates based on historical flows. However, results show that these statistics, as well as the lag-1 serial correlation, are generally well maintained by the generated sequences. The degree to which any statistical dissimilarities would be critical, from an engineering design point of view, is demonstrated by utilizing their low flow characteristics. Estimates of reservoir safe-yields, based on a nonsequential mass-curve analysis of the historical and generated low flows, indicate a nominal difference in this particular study. |
