经济增长下的渤海环境容量预测

据1999,2002—2005年渤海活性磷酸盐、石油类、无机氮的水质监测资料。采用箱式模型。估算渤海及各分区现状下及不同经济增长率下的环境容量预测值。估算结果显示．分污染物来看,各年份均是无机氮较大,石油类次之．活性磷酸盐较小;分区域来看。各年份各污染物均是渤海中部较大,辽东湾、渤海湾次之,莱州湾最小;从时间变化来看。除活性磷酸盐外。石油类和无机氯自2002年到2004年逐年减小。假设渤海污染物排入量随着经济增长每年增加5％。以达到环境容量极限值需要的年数来看。自2005年。分别在7年、4年、17年后渤海的石油类、活性磷酸盐、无机氮将达不到一类水质标准,50年、19年、37年后超过四类水质下环境容量极限值;假设随着经济增长污染物排海量每年增长10％,那么自2005年起。29年、13年和22年后三种污染物将超过四类水质下环境容量极限值。

Prognostic of Environmental Capacity Variation in Bohai Based on the Economy Increase

The environmental capacity of Bohai and subareas were calculated based on the observed data of petroleum, dissolved phosphate and inorganic nitrogen from 1999 to 2005 except 2000 and 2001. For different contaminations, the environmental capacity of inorganic nitrogen is the largest and dissolved phosphate is the smallest; for different area, middle Bohai is the largest, Laizhou Bay is the smallest; except dissolved phosphate, the environmental capacity of petroleum and inorganic nitrogen were decreasing gradually from 2002 to 2004. According to the economic growth, there are two hypotheses on the discharge of contamination which are 5% increase or 10% increase every year. Up to year2015, the environmental capacity of inorganic nitrogen under the first water quality criterion was just 67% and 15% of 2005. Furthermore, by calculating the years, those contaminations reached the environmental capacity limit under the first water quality criterion from year2005. Petroleum, dissolved phosphate and inorganic nitrogen will reach their environmental capacity limit after 7, 4 and 17 years respectively, based on the increase rate of 5% of the contamination drain off. And after 50, 19 and 37 years, these contaminations the fourth water quality criterion. Referring to another hypothesis of the increase rate of 10%, after 29, 13 and 22 years, these contaminations will reach their fourth environmental capacity limit.