Acid deposition models for detecting the effect of changes in emissions: an exploratory investigation utilizing meteorological variables

Two models are presented that incorporate meteorological variables to improve the assessment of the effects of emissions reductions on the concentration of sulfate in precipitation. We obtain results using these models from 12 sites in the NADP/NTN network for the 10-year period 1979–1988. In both models, we estimate the emissions effect and discuss appropriate measurements of error. Although we use historical data to evaluate the models, this methodology is developed to improve the assessment of anticipated future emission reductions under the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990. The emphaseis of this research is not on the actual estimates of the effect of emission changes. Rather, we show that the incorporation of meteorological variables offers some hope for improving the assessment of the effects of emission reductions. We provide a preliminary evaluation of the improvement in the methodology utilizing meteorological variables at 12 NADP/NTN sites in the eastern U.S.A.