基于投入产出的中国行业碳排放及减排效果模拟

基于投入产出模型对中国30个行业的碳排放和相互流动进行评估,在利用双比例尺度法对投入产出数据进行更新的基础上,针对不同目标情景下的行业减排效果进行模拟。结果表明：1）行业间的碳排放流动普遍存在,30个行业中有24个高碳型,其中12个全过程型、1个表观高碳型和11个传导型;2）碳排放流动网络中的关键节点行业有煤炭采选业、石油天然气采选业、化学产品业、金属冶炼和压延加工业、电力生产供应业和交通运输仓储邮政业,其处于网络中心地位;3）行业间技术经济联系变动引起的减排幅度为12.43%,最终需求规模上升引起碳排放上升幅度在70%~90%左右;生产排放系数下调10%的减排效果为8.76%,下调15%带来的可能减排效果为13.14%。通过行业减排目标控制的减排政策效果不太显著,但随着政策目标的严格程度上升有所改善。研究结论有利于中国差异化行业减排对策的制定。

Simulation of Industrial Carbon Emissions and Its Reduction in China Based on Input-output Model

Scientifically measuring carbon emissions and evaluate mutually flow characteristics among industries will supply strong evidence for making different reduction measures for industrial sectors in China. This paper utilized adjusted input-output model to measure the direct intensity, indirect intensity and mutually flow properties of carbon emission among 30 industrial sectors. Possible reduction effects in 2017 were forecast. Results were as follows: 1) Carbon emission flows widely spread among sectors. The indirect carbon intensity of 24 industries was significantly higher than the direct intensity. Among 30 sectors, 12 sectors are whole-process high carbon industries, 1 sector is apparent-high carbon industries, 11 sectors are transmission-type high carbon industries and 6 sectors are low carbon industries. 2) The key sectors in carbon flow network are coal mining, chemical products manufacturing, petroleum and natural gas mining, smelting and pressing of metals, power production and supply industry, transportation, storage and post. They located in the center of the carbon flow network. 3) Change in relations among sectors reduced carbon emission by 12.43%. The growth of ultimate demands caused 70%-90% amount of increase of carbon emission. If the emission coefficient decreases by 10% in 2017, the carbon emission can be reduced by 8.76%, and if it decreases by 15%, the carbon emission can be reduced by 13.14%. Reduction measures controlled by industry emission reduction target did not have good effects. If the policy becomes stricter, the effect should be improved. When government makes industrial reduction plans, whole-process high carbon emission sectors and key sectors on the flow network should be paid more attention and should be strictly controlled to realize the 2020 and 2030 carbon reduction targets.